My favorite economist wins the Nobel

Congratulations to Paul Krugman for winning the Nobel in economics. I devour the essays of Krugman because he writes like my other favorite - Richard Dawkins; concise and easy to understand.

Eat you hearts out Bush and Greenspan.

My forecast: Steven Levitt gets his in 10 years. 

My "prayer": Dawkins gets a Nobel too.

Manila gamblers make it to best-seller

I've heard of our bigshot politicians accompanying Manny Pacquiao to Las Vegas during his boxing bouts. These big shots are also famous for their bigtime gambling habit. But I never suspected they are that big thus meriting a mention in a best-selling book. This passage from The Black Swan confirms:

All they had to do was control the "whales," the high rollers flown in at the casino's expense from Manila or Hong Kong; whales can swing several million dollars in a gambling bout.

The Black Swan comes flying again!

This passage from The Black Swan by Nassim Nicholas Taleb is very interesting in the face of the current financial turmoil.

In the summer of 1982, large American banks lost close to all their past earnings (cumulatively), about everything they ever made in the history of American banking—everything. They had been lending to South and Central American countries that all defaulted at the same time—"an event of an exceptional nature." So it took just one summer to figure out that this was a sucker's business and that all their earnings came from a very risky game. All that while the bankers led everyone, especially themselves, into believing that they were "conservative." They are not conservative; just phenomenally skilled at self-deception by burying the possibility of a large, devastating loss under the rug. In fact, the travesty repeated itself a decade later, with the "risk-conscious" large banks once again under financial strain, many of them near-bankrupt, after the real estate collapse of the early 1990s in which the now defunct savings and loan industry required a taxpayer-funded bailout of more than half a trillion dollars. The Federal Reserve bank protected them at our expense:
when "conservative" bankers make profits, they get the benefits; when they are hurt, we pay the costs.

The US president at the time was Bush Sr who was also in the midst of a war with Iraq.

Fund managers often drown would-be investors in statistics to show that the investment schemes they are marketing would surely rake in money for their investors. Taleb updates us on this pseudo-science.

Lehman trouble worries my colleagues

The collapse of Lehman are making my colleagues walk with their fingers crossed and in daze.

They have placements, big placements, in the local subsidiary of American International Group (AIG) because of the big returns on their investments.

AIG is skittering on the brink and my friends are praying real hard. Well, win some; lose some.

People like me who have nothing to invest have nothing to lose. And no hope of winning anything. :-(

The Obama Speech - a must read (and view)

I have lumps in my throat while reading the text of the speech of Barack Obama. And later I had tears in my eyes when I watched the video. On the amusing side: my family and I counted 30 "thank you's" from Obama before he could go on to his speed.

Will the Philippines ever have a Filipino Obama? Ninoy Aquino could have been one. Except that unlike Obama, Ninoy had the pedigree for politics. So Obama's story is more astounding.

I am optimistic. Since I plan to live for 30 more years, I know the Philippines will have decent leaders before I die. And I hope to see my grandchildren enthusiastic to vote for one. That will be the day that I will cast my ballot again. Just like those old Americans who went back to the primaries and will vote again on November 4 just because they see hope in Obama.

First, a transformation in our society should come before we can elect a Filipino Obama. That is what happened to America. Paul Krugman says America has been transformed that is why it is now possible for a Black (or a woman I should add) to be elected to the highest office.

I believe transformation comes with the creation of a strong working middle class with enough voting clout to counter the tendency of the masses to vote for a populist politician and the bias of the elite to choose from among their own.

Periodically I get to lecture to group of students who come to the office as part of their class requirements. I always make it a point to show them the need for upright politicians, honest government bureaucrats and hardworking entrepreneurs to get this county out of the rut it is in.

The hope of the Philippines are in these young students. Those of us who have been in politics, in government bureaucracies or in business for more than two decades and still have not done anything, our time is up. Let's give way to the young, nurture their idealism and provide them with the opportunities for the sake of our grandchildren.

My thoughts on the Mindanao conflict

This is only a draft. I hope I have enough time this weekend to complete this blog.

(I am introducing my out-of-school son to Visual C++ this weekend. He stumbled on Java a week ago. But I think Visual C++ would be better since he is interested in game programming.)

My outline for this piece:
1. I have a stake in Mindanao. The first casualty in our family was an uncle who was killed (early 1950s) in Zamboanga del Norte by bandits.
2. I spent my early childhood up until my grade 1 (1958) in Zamboanga del Sur. From Grade 2 until my high school I stayed with my grandparents in Cebu.
3. For college I went back to Mindanao and studied fisheries hoping to spend the rest of my years tending to our family fishpond.
4. My father was murdered by his political opponent (a fellow Bisaya) in 1971. My mother moved the family back to Cebu. My father's kins stuck it out. A little later the "Muslim-Christian" conflict erupted. Our town was razed to the ground.
5. My uncle and his second wife and children were killed by the rebels presumably Maguindanaos. My cousin and his family were killed also by rebels.
6. I think the Maranaos and the Maguindanaos and other natives of Mindanao have plenty of reasons for feeling aggrieved.
7. Peace and progress can only be achieved if these grievances are properly resolved. Some kind of closure, of restitution, is needed because of the past injustice the natives of Mindanao suffered at the hands of those not from Mindanao.

Not the only atheist in Cebu. Thanks God!

I was at the Powerbooks at SM City Cebu with my wife a few weeks back. Just for curiosity I asked the saleslady about any book by Prof. Dawkins. She promptly answered, "Ah, the God Delusion book, it is already sold out".

I kidded my wife that I finally found out I was not the only atheist in town. At the office I am frank about my non-belief and would jestingly describe myself as the only one without four Cs: no cellphone, no credit card, no car and no Christ.

I really would like to have a printed copy of The God Delusion in my bookshelf alongside with the other books of Prof. Dawkins. But I think I have to wait for his next science book on evolution.